A census in Florida from 1855 shows that the total wealth of the state’s population was $49,461,466.  More than 55% of this ($27,250,551) was slaves.  When Northerners made their case that the South should end the practice, the economic reality was largely ignored.  The primary asset for most slave-owning Southerners was slaves.  So ending slavery was asking white Southerners to walk away from their wealth.  And there was no specific trigger-event that could be pointed at – the decision could always be postponed to another day.  And so it was.

It took a bloody war to force the end of slavery, and in the end the South was probably poorer than if they had conceded the point in 1860.  But such is human nature.  Prior to the Civil War, a number of half-measures and compromises were attempted.  These generally had the effect of throwing gasoline on the fire.  Abolitionists also tried taking direct action to free the slaves – making them perhaps the first American terrorists.  In the end, none of this was enough and war followed.

In 1990, the Berlin Wall came down.  Within the period of just a few years, the entire social infrastructure built by the USSR was dismantled with almost no violence.  For the eastern bloc countries, this change was much more significant than the end of slavery in America was to white Americans.  Everything those countries stood for, everything they had tried to build, everything they had sacrificed generations for — all of it was lost overnight.  The people came to realize that a future under Communism was worse than the disruption caused by shifting to capitalism.

What was different between 1860 and 1990?  Human nature had not changed in 130 years.  But perhaps social values and communications had.

Now in America, we face another upheaval.  Once again we can see a future where the assets and lifestyle we have today will be forced to change.  Once again, there are enormous economic assets involved.  Once again, there may not be a clear triggering event – so that the forces of inertia can always say “let’s wait a little longer and see what happens”.

This upheaval is related to our national oil appetite.   We have trillions of dollars tied up in cars, roads, pipelines, oil fields, refineries, repair shops and gas stations.  We have spent more trillions building our cities and suburbs to meet the requirements of the automobile.  The gnashing of teeth will be loud as oil supplies dwindle as environmental and health concerns rise.  You can hear it now, if you listen carefully.

The abolitionists who agitated for change in the 1800’s were criticized for fanning the flames.  They were unwilling to simply “let things be” when human lives were at stake.  And so it is today.  Environmentalists and peak-oil pundits face the same criticism, but are driven by the same belief that human lives are at stake.  Communications and social consciousness are greater now than ever before.  Hopefully the conclusion this time will be more like Berlin and less like Gettysburg.